WHAT NEXT?

Joginder Singh,
IPS (Retd.) Former Director CBI

Pakistan , for the first time, has half-confessed about the role of its citizens and the terrorist groups operating from Pakistan , under world pressure and particularly India and USA . They have agreed to treat the dossier sent as evidence, as against their earlier stand, of it being only ‘information'.

Previously, it used to be only one-sided statements emanating from India , about the Pakistan 's ISI being the guardian angle of criminals, felons and outrageous offenders.

Let us not jump to conclusion that dossier  proof, which India has  furnished to Pakistan, would in any way deter the super Pakistani arbiter,  that is Army  and ISI, from their long term objective of ‘bleeding India, with thousand cuts and proxy war'. So called ‘ Pakistan democracy', notwithstanding, the army is the main player, both behind and   in the open. In fact, the Civilian Government exists on the pleasure of the Pakistani Generals, who must be feeling uncomfortable, on what Talibans have called the second ‘Surrender to India ', after 1971 surrender.

Taliban, means “students of the Islamic Knowledge Movement”, who joined Pakistanis and Arabs as mujahideens (holy warriors), for fighting the Soviets and ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. In view of the difficult terrain of Afghanistan and NWFP of Pakistan, it is very difficult to contain Al Qaeda and Taliban there, especially when they suit Pakistan 's  both short-term and long-term objectives. The only people who have been successful against the Afghan elements were Sikhs, under the  Generalship of Hari Singh Nalwa during the regime of Maharaja Ranjit Singh of Punjab .

Al Qaeda has already threatened India that they would carry out more Mumbai style attacks against India if India attacks Pakistan . In fact, Al Qaeda and Taliban are just as far away from the Indo-Pak border as Lucknow is from Delhi . Taliban terrorists unleashed a wave of terror in Kabul , storming government buildings and leaving 20 people dead in February, 2009.  All had assault rifles and wore suicide bomb vests. Their aim was to shoot dead as many people as possible, before blowing themselves up.

Even the Americans, who gave full support in terms of money and weapons, considered the Talibans, as freedom fighters when they were fighting against the Communist Soviets. When the Soviet Union collapsed and its forces withdrew from  Afghanistan , the Talibans no longer remained strategically important to the Americans.  The War, on behalf of the Americans, left behind battle-tested men and plenty of latest weapons. They had no more jihad or holy war to fight.  So, many of them went to work for Pakistan , especially on Kashmir front.

The clout of so called Talibans can be seen from the fact that Prime Minister  Yousuf Raza Gilani signed a peace deal on May 21, 2008   with Talibans in Pakistan 's North-western valley, calling for, among other things, the withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the tourist region of Swat and the imposition, of Shariat or Islamic law there.

In return, the terrorists promised to close camps, hand over foreign fighters and halt suicide attacks on government posts and security forces. 

A regrettable fact is that “Talibanisation” is creeping in one form or the other, on almost all Muslim States from Morocco to Far East and Central Asia . Another   common aspect is, Anti- American and Anti-Westernism, in almost all the countries where fundamentalists have an edge. In any case, Muslim majority States are not always paragons of political or moral or human rights. They themselves, feel threatened by the Islamic extremists in the name of religion.

It is more so in democracies, like India where different parties depend upon the vote banks of minorities. India cannot help being concerned about our neighbours becoming a heaven and sanctuary for fundamental-ists and terrorists. If these continue to thrive in Pakistan and Bangladesh , it is bound to affect us.

As it is, Talibans in Pakistan have banned music and videos in buses in North-western areas bordering Afghanistan . Transporters in the NWFP have ordered the bus drivers to remove all audio and visual equipment from their vehicles.

Pakistan President Zardari claims that “ Pakistan is fighting a war for its survival against the Taliban, who have a presence in large parts of the country… Taliban want to overtake the State of Pakistan … It is indispensable to halt the rising influence of Taliban by using force as they desire to change our living style… The government has no other option but to root out terrorism and militancy from the region…The absence of options makes the choice abundantly clear.”

It had its multiplier effect in India , as can be seen; the Muslim groups in Srinagar  banned beauty parlours and ordered the closure of video parlours as Un-Islamic. A Muslim Board in UP has banned the co-education in the Madrassas.  

All said and done, the fact remains that our own battles against terrorism and terrorists have  to be fought and won by us and not by CIA or USA or other western nations. It may be recalled that neither USA nor any other western nation was interested in the terrorism in India , till they themselves felt the pinch, after 9/11 in USA and later on London and Glasgow Bombings.

All countries are basically concerned with their own problems. They become interested in others only when it starts pinching them.

Let us not    raise our expectations too high from the change in regime, in USA or in other countries. Even USA will pressurise Pakistan or other countries to the extent, they feel, should be done, without reaching the breaking point or even coming anywhere near the confrontation. They would not push Pakistan to the wall, for the sake of India .

No worthwhile terrorist organisation in Pakistan can survive or even exist overtly or covertly, without that government turning a Nelson's eyes to what is going on there. By whatever name you call them, either Al Qaeda or Laskhar or Mujahideen , their objective is to decimate India , whom they call , as their common enemy. \

It fits within  Pakistan 's policy so far. All these organisations have a common handler, that is, the ISI, which provides them the use of their hide-outs, sanctuaries and training centres. There is no fixed or sure method of dealing with and crushing terrorism, except to use offence as the best form of defence, especially at our entry points.

But one thing is certain, that a strike of the magnitude which happened in Mumbai on 26/11 and Parliament attack on 13/12 or attack on Bangalore , Surat , Ahmedabad or Hyderabad , or Jaipur, could not have been done without planning, reconnaissance and knowledge of get aways. How Pakistan deals with its internal problems of first rearing up terrorists and now wanting to crush them, when they want to overthrow the Government, it is their outlook.  It cannot be that the Government of Pakistan is helpless. You cannot run with the hunted and then also help the hounds or hunters. If Taliban want to overrun the Government and take over, it is for the regime there to decide as to how it should tackle the problem.

Once bitten twice shy. But in case of our country, we have been bitten more often than most people recall. India cannot afford to take the assurances given to take action against those responsible for Mumbai attack, on their face value. Such assurances and politically correct statements have been galore in the past, only to be broken by declarations that Pakistan would always stand by the terrorists, whom it calls freedom fighters.

While talking about the Mumbai attacks, we should not forget that the basic element of terrorism is surprise, and let us not drop our guard in view of the right noises and statements made by Pakistan . We must not be lulled while the terrorists might be preparing for another spectacular strike somewhere in the country.